Cole
you brilliant and glorious son of a bitch, this is the best idea you have ever
had. I have missed waxing philosophical about sprots with you, and I hope
this is the start of a long run of at least semi-consistent banter.
To reopen hostilities in The Fourth Seminole War, we have decided to preview the upcoming NFL conference championship games. We will argue one side of each of them, and leave it up to you to decide which of us is more full of shit. First up, the NFC Championship, in which I am taking the Packers.
“But the legion of boom is healthy now and looks amazing! They dominated Carolina in the divisional round!” OK, first of all, don’t brag about beating a team that couldn’t manage to scrape eight wins together in the regular season. And yes, the defense has looked good of late, and they are on a winning streak. But besides the Panthers, that streak includes the Rams, four games against Cardinals and 49ers teams that peaked early and were in the midst of their own crippling issues by season’s end, and the Sanchize. It’s easy for a defense to get healthy against a team marching the Butt Fumble out there (and they were so hopeful when they did it; Philly fans…). And in all those games, the Sea Chickens managed to score over 20 points only twice. Getting held under 20 these days is like getting held to six a couple of decades ago. Fantasy steal, yes; excellent game manager, yes; serious threat in the run game, yes; but Russell Wilson is not going to throw his way into the Super Bowl. If the Pack’s linebackers can contain the running game, they will hold Seattle to a very manageable number. Long story short: I am not drinking the 12th Man Kool-Aid just yet.
The main reason is: the Pack can score on anybody. My old lady’s crush, even on one leg, is good enough to get the ball down the field and find whoever the Legion is willing to give him. A Dallas defense that looked to be playing its best football could not handle Rodgers, even has he gimped around in the backfield completely incapable of doing his usual extend-plays-scramble-for-the-sticks magic. And the there is Eddie Lacy. Even though his first half ruined Girl Cole’s fantasy season, that same shitty first half seems to have left him fresh for this playoff run. If Eddie can do enough to keep the front seven honest, and he and Kuhn can help keep Rodgers upright, Ol’ Dreamy Blue Eyes will find his weapons, Boom or no Boom.
Rodgers has another advantage going for him. He has now played on that leg a lot, and he knows what he is dealing with now. He and his receivers know that the ball will have to come out fast. They can game plan with reasonable expectations of what Rodgers will be able to do. I for one trust Jordy, Cobb, and Adams (Rodgers can make anyone look good; he is like Tommy that way) to give Aaron the targets he needs to see. And heck, maybe Rodgers gets a little bit healthy this week.
The Seahawks’ home field advantage is worth a lot, but the Packers have more to prove. They are hungrier, and are pissed off. They are pissed off about Week 1. They are pissed off that they don’t get the respect that they fell they deserve. Hell, they are pissed off about the Fail Mary. They will come out with fire in their bellies, and I think they will quiet that crowd quickly, at least as much as can be expected.
Defense wins championships, and the Seahawks have a good one, but I don’t think their O can score with the Pack. Green Bay is not without a solid defense in their own right, and Rodgers on one leg is a more complete quarterback than Russell Wilson at 100%. Give me the Pack 27-23 over the Sea Chickens.
ColeHoop:
Rob, my friend, it has been too long since we've done this. Let's get into it.
I hope that I am indeed paying for our next tab at Jim and Milt's. First, because that means we'll be in the same place at the same time, which means we can advance our quest for world domination. Second, because I'm not really fond of the Seahawks. That said, I think they're gonna advance to their second straight Super Bowl.
Let's talk first about the Packers, and let's get right to the point: Aaron Rodgers had a hell of a game on Sunday, even though he wasn't able to scramble and use his legs. Quite simply, he's on another level. The problem is he was facing Dallas, whose defense is simply not on SEATTLE'S level.
Rodgers' elite running and scrambling ability make him the best quarterback in the game. His accuracy, precision, and decision making are superb, but it's his ability to get out of the pocket, throw on the run, and run for positive yardage that separates him from Brady, Luck, Manning, and Wilson. And while his overall talent and his offensive line may have been enough to overcome Dallas, it's simply not going to happen against Seattle without him being able to use his legs. Let's also not forget that Seattle beat Green Bay in week 1 by a score of 36-16, when Rodgers was healthy and able to run.
You can bet Seattle's defense will force Rodgers to win this game entirely with his arm. Lacy's gonna get his, but Rodgers isn't going to be able to run, and that's a problem for Green Bay. I realize how contradictory I may sound considering my praise for Rodgers above, but I don't think people fully understand that Rodgers needs to be able to run in order to be 100% - at which point he's rarely beatable. Unfortunately for your girl's crush, he won't be at 100% this Sunday, and without that, I don't see the Pack pulling it off.
As far as Seattle goes, I see them winning this game due to the following factors:
1. The Seahawks' defense will play out of its mind. They know how to beat Green Bay - they stomped them 36-16 in Week 1. Their pass rush, when it gets on a roll, is a scary thing to behold. And quite frankly, that cocky ass secondary has every right to be cocky. They make you pay for even the slightest mistakes.
2. Because the defense will limit the Packers (by limit, I mean to 22 points or so), Seattle will be able to rely on Marshawn Lynch to bowling ball his way to two touchdowns.
3. Russell Wilson rarely makes mistakes. In fact, the number of interceptions he has thrown has decreased each season: 10 in 2012, 9 in 2013, and 7 in 2014.
4. The 12th Man. Green Bay has felt its sting before and will feel it again.
Seahawks 30 Packers 22
Pitchers of beer are only $2.00 at Jim and Milt's!
Phatty:
OK, I have to admit, when I started arguing in favor of the Pack, I could not find a lot of numbers to support my case. Everything from the comparative DVOA of Dallas, Green Bay, and Seattle to, well, Week 1 kind of let me down. Still, that’s why they play the games, right? You can’t measure hunger, clutch, or most of the other things I went to in order to showcase the Packers’ chances, and stat-heads therefore constantly argue that such things don’t exist. But then why do they play, and why do we watch. Aaron Rodgers is a great quarterback, who has won it all (in great part on his own merits with a team that was riddled with key injuries), and I think the quarterback matchup will be key.
I miss 10-6 defensive struggles. I miss 3 yards and a cloud of dust; I miss dust, and dirt, and mud. I miss watching great defenses play (and I am not sold on the Legion of Boom’s long-term memorability). Honestly, I miss watching defenses that are actually allowed to play. Woody Hayes said that “only three things can happen when you throw a football, and two of them are bad.” Now four things can happen, because a pass interference or defensive holding penalty is now almost as common as a reception.
I miss the league that they have been working very hard over the last decade or so to kill. That being said, since it is now a quarterback’s league and everyone else is just playing in it, I am going with the better quarterback, not the guy who is still ultimately young and underwhelming enough to end up on the Brad Johnson Super Bowl Winning Mediocre Quarterbacks Scrap Heap.
Also, Tony Corrente is reffing the game, and last time he was the official for a Seahawks game he threw 14 flags on them. Watch out, Legion of Boom.
ColeHoop
Aaron Rodgers is my favorite NFL quarterback, and I believe if he stays healthy, he will end his career as the best quarterback of all time. I've often wondered if we should consider his sitting behind Brett Favre for three seasons a blessing or a curse. Were we blessed that he was able to learn behind #4, or were we deprived of three years of his phenomenal abilities? One thing's for certain: he'll never be able to make up those three years in terms of statistics, so it's unlikely that he holds any of the major records when he retires. But I maintain that when he retires 7-10 years from now, he's very likely going to be considered the greatest ever.
Even though that is a conversation for another time, I think it's pertinent to my rebuttal. Rodgers is beyond special, but as I said, what makes him extra special is his running ability. If that leg isn't 100%, he can't work that magic. Also, while he's obviously the better quarterback in this matchup, Wilson is also a M-A-N, especially considering some members of his surrounding cast. Besides Marshawn Lynch and Doug Baldwin, can you tell me, without looking it up, who else touches the ball for Seattle? Let's also not forget that in this quarterback's league, Wilson and the 'Hawks ran over Peyton Manning on the grandest stage of them all.
Bottom line for me: Rodgers is the better quarterback, but Seattle is the better overall team, which is why they win this Sunday.
I'm with you on wanting more low scoring games. As a Bucs fan, I long for the days when 17 points scored by the offense means you can close it up, because the defense ain't allowing more than 16.
ALSO DID YOU KNOW THAT BOBBY BOWDEN REJECTED AARON RODGERS
AT FSU? I'M TYPING IN CAPS 'CAUSE I DON'T KNOW HOW ELSE TO EXPRESS MY
FRUSTRATION.
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