On to the AFC, where Rob's Patriots are in the conference championship game for the fourth consecutive year. Here's why they aren't going to advance to the Super Bowl:
Andrew Luck is beneath only Aaron Rodgers on the totem pole of elite quarterbacks. Yes, I believe he's better than Brady right now - he's got fewer weapons to work with and doesn't have the benefit of a 15 year relationship with his head coach. And I realize the Colts are going to have to rely entirely on Luck because of their mediocre running game, but if I had to rely on him to win a game I wouldn't be complaining too much. When Ahmad Bradshaw got injured, this team's season officially became Luck's to salvage, and he's done his job thus far.
As far as stopping Brady and the Pats' offense...well, let me first admit that I don't see the Colts holding them to under 35 points. Brady and his teammates are going to score and score lots. It would also be foolish to expect the Colts' defense to play as well as it has over the last two weeks. New England isn't giving the Colts any of the injury advantages the Bengals (A.J. Green) and Broncos (Peyton Manning) did, and the Pats proved earlier this year that they could score on the Colts, racking up 42 points in a victory just two months ago.
It would also be foolish, however, to completely dismiss the Colts' defensive improvements. Defensive coordinator Greg Manusky will have learned from his mistakes during that aforementioned loss to the Pats, and I think they are going to give Brady some headaches.
I'm predicting a higher scoring affair than last time. Colts 42, Patriots 38. Andrew Luck will have to play the game of his career, and I think he does.
Phatty:
I mean, Cole, I know the format of this thing we are doing requires you to argue the case for the Mighty Lucks, but c’mon. It’s the Pats. They look great. They exorcised their Ravens demons by putting the ball in the hands of the best player in NFL history and letting him (virtually; as Giselle once astutely pointed out: he can't catch them, too) single-handedly wall their championship hopes up in a mausoleum, never to be heard from again. Yes, that’s a Poe reference. Too much? Anyway, in contrast, to “break” the Colts this season, WE DIDN’T EVEN OUR BEST PLAYER. AT ALL. ALL WE NEEDED WAS A CAST-OFF PRACTICE SQUAD RUNNINGBACK. But fine, I’ll bite. Let’s go line by line.
First, what the hell is up with your Quarterback Totem Poll? You got Blake Bortles and Tim Tebow up there above Tom Terrific, too? Did you not just read about how he is the greatest player in NFL history? Please. I am not even going to engage this point.
Moving on, Neckbeard has had to carry the Colts O for the most part, but Herron and Tipton have given their run game some signs of life… Why am I making a point in favor of the Colts? How did you make me do that? OK, forget it. With literally anyone the Patriots run game is better than the best the Colts can muster. Soo… we are going to win.
After that you are right for awhile. The Patriots will score all over the Colts. The learning curve of Mandingo aside, New England will once again take those baby horses to school.
I mean, I could also talk about the New England defense, which has literally always made Luck and the Colts look bad. I could also talk about the fact that the Patriots, besides having the greatest player in the history of the sport, also have the greatest coach of all time at the helm. But I am not going to bother. It’s like pulling out astronomical trigonometry and quantum physics to prove the sun will rise in the morning. You could, but why bother? Either way it’s going to happen.
Pats 45, Bad Guys 24. Game is over with 5 minutes left to go in the third.
ColeHoop:
Rob, your reGronkulus confidence plus your coining of the Colts as "The Mighty Lucks" reminds me of a character from The Mighty Ducks: the chief antagonist, Coach Jack Reilly. "Game is over with 5 minutes left to go in the third" will be this generation's "It's not worth winning if you CAN'T WIN BIG!"
It's very likely that this could be the year that Brady gets over his 7 year case of Manning-itis (most common symptoms: playing awesome at first but failing to deliver when it counts) - that's why I'm predicting a very small margin of victory for the Colts. But a victory it shall be!
Phatty:
So much to love about your response. reGronkulus (reGronkulous? I would consult Webster's, but after what they did to "literally" I will never trust them again) used in casual conversation, Mighty Ducks references, brilliant. If we ever have readers, this is why they will love you.
Now, about that Manningitis. We are not supposed to talk about that. It is blasphemy to disparage the legacy of The Mighty Tom, but I would like to address some concerns raised by certain Baltimore defensive personnel in the days leading up to the Patriots' AFC divisional game. By the way, enjoy working on your irons while we play meaningful games, Suggs.
1) The Patriots have not won anything since Spygate. Oh no? Since Bill and the Pats were penalized for what many believed to be a common NFL practice (fairly, of course, but everybody cheats; get caught holding, you lose 10 yards. Get caught filming, you lose three quarters of a million dollars and a couple of draft picks), the Patriots have won double-digit regular season games EVERY YEAR. They have also been to the playoffs in every single year since the incident with the sole exception of 2008, when Tom was out for the season and yet Bill somehow got a guy who had not started a game since high school and a defense in the midst of a major rebuild to eleven wins anyway. Damn you and your dick pics, Brett Favre (but go FSU Cowgirl Jenn Sterger, haha).
Quick aside: The Patriots' ability to be this competitive over this stretch since their championship defenses moved on or retired is all you should need to know about Belichick. Most teams would have taken a couple of steps back, maybe played noncompetitive football for a couple years while they restocked. Not Bill. We have a shot every year, and as 2008 shows, it is thanks to the coach perhaps even more than the quarterback.
Anyway, that stretch from 2008 to the present also includes six division titles, five first-round byes (I always thought Tom's playoff record should include all the games he didn't have to win because of his regular season prowess; seems only fair), a respectable 5-5 playoff record (10 rounds advanced if you include those byes, compared to five losses), two AFC Championships, and two very close Super Bowl losses. No one compares to that level, save teams that have won the big one in the same stretch of time, which Brady fans must acknowledge to be the ultimate trump card (given one of our main points for claiming Brady's dominance over Manning, not that we need it (cough11-5head-to-headcough)). But it wasn't a lack of film that put Super Glue on David Tyree's head in February of 2008, or made Welker and Murdering Psycho Hernandez drop those passes and allow Eli to pull another Rain Man-like miracle out of his ass in February of 2012. It took incredible, unlikely plays to beat the Patriots in those Super Bowls. Manning's last one, for instance? He was toast by the time the first snap bounced into the end zone. So don't give me that shit. We have won plenty.
2) It wasn't Brady winning those Super Bowls, it was that all-world defense. Fair enough, to a point. If you want to point out that we have not won the Big Game since we lost that core of Seymour, Bruschi, and Rodney Harrison, I can't really argue. As I mentioned before, Bill has been rebuilding the defense ever since, and despite the new rules (and some things that I said in the NFC preview) defense is still a critical part of winning in the playoffs. But it's not like Joe Montana won with a bunch of schmucks playing D for the 'Niners. Hell, Terry Bradshaw was flat-out mediocre, and let the Steel Curtain spirit him to his titles. But the defense did not lead game-winning drives in 2002 and 2004, and it did not put the Patriots one goddamned catch away from sealing a victory in 2008. It also had very little to do with beating the Ravens last week. We will need the current version of Belichick's D to play great if we make the Super Bowl, but if you look at his second half against the Ravens, I think it is hard to argue that Tom doesn't have what it takes to put the team on his back.
We'll see about that Manning-itis. I am cautiously optimistic.
Oh, not about this game against the Colts, though. I am recklessly optimistic about that one.
It's not worth winning if you CAN'T WIN BIG!
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