Before I begin I have to admit while I live in an ACC television market, coverage of my beloved Seminoles is spotty at best up here in the Metro Area, so my observations are long-distance and in a lot of ways derived from recaps and analysis of our season rather than from my own viewing experience. I have, however, seen three games in the last four weeks and have followed this team as closely as the internets allow, so I'll give you what I got.
When the conference season started Seminole pundits predicted a ludicrous level of parity in the ACC, thanks I guess in large part to UNC's fall from grace and the even start all the teams had out of the gate. 9-7 in the conference was set out as a very achievable goal and one that would allow us easy entry into the big dance come March. Well, though the Heels are reeling and there have been a couple other changes at the top and the bottom, things are shaping up as they always seem to, with a few good teams in front and a few crappy ones in the basement. Quite literally in the center of all this is Florida State, a team that survives on paralyzing defense but doesn't have enough offensive firepower to reach the next level. It's also a somewhat young and immature team that can be thrown out of rhythm by unfavorable calls or the press (Clemson and UMD run the press in the conference; FSU's record against these teams: 0-3). Both of these factors took them completely out of synch when they played Clemson on ESPN2 last week. That game seemed to embody the ceiling that this team has. They can whoop up on the dregs of the ACC and beat the teams that they are supposed to (like BC this weekend, who always seemed to hand us heartbreakers in recent years, so I am very happy to walk all over them now), but they rarely come up with a really big win. Marquette provided us a decent out-of-conference victory, but that is tempered by a loss to NC State at home. We lost to Ohio State and Duke soundly, got swept by Maryland, and only have one win over any team ranked ahead of us in the current standings (VT, at home). The only good news is that we get Wake and another crack at Clemson in the Duck; these will have to serve as our best chances for signature wins down the stretch. Well, there is UNC, but if we win it will be seen only as kicking them when they are down, and if we lose it probably won't even help their tourney chances. If the season ended today we'd probably deserve a slot as the last ACC team in, though who knows how many they will actually take. Still, with only two home games left, and those against our most difficult remaining opponents, the Noles have a hard road ahead and haven't shown the gumption to see it through.
Watching them unravel against Clemson was difficult. I love the defense-first style of Coach Ham, who formed a philosophy around the talent he had to maximize their effectiveness. But that philosophy came apart as the officials micromanaged the pace and intensity of the game and Clemson’s press caused too many sloppy and hurried offensive possessions. It showed me that this team does not have the depth of character to really make a push in March. It's too late in the season to hope for growth and maturation, so I guess I'll settle for the middle, because, to be fair, I never expected to get even that out of this team. I feel we are forgetting something as the groundswell of outrageous expectations that always accompanies the slightest Seminole success takes over. Sure, we are stuck in the pack; sure we only beat the bottom half of the ACC, but we could BE the bottom half of the ACC. After Toney Douglas left with Uche and the rest of our veterans, having dragged us kicking and screaming into March Madness for the first time in 600 years, hope did not exactly spring eternal. We lost crucial scoring and experience when that senior class moved on, and I don’t think anyone had any expectations that we would reach the NCAAs again after just ending the drought, even with our perennially impressive recruiting classes. If football can teach us anything it is that good recruiting classes do not translate to successful seasons. So I for one am proud of our middling basketball team, and am psyched to watch it hover between good and mediocre. Two NCAA tourneys in a row would be a great feat. I just hope they can get there by treading water.
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