WINSTON.....
Not since Alex Smith versus Aaron Rodgers has there been so much debate regarding the number one overall pick and a pair of quarterbacks. And this happens to be a time honored match up that has occurred a few times in my life time. Manning vs Leaf. Rodgers vs Smith. Luck vs Griffin. Hopefully all you kiddos at home are seeing the very obvious trend in those three examples, and since those are the three easiest, and lets face it, most supportive of the points I hope to make, we are going to stop there and not delve too far into the history of the draft. In every single one of those examples it has become abundantly clear that one team made the choice that saved their franchise and another team made the most dire of mistakes; drafting a QB BUST! So, with so much at stake for the Buccaneers and, as it stands, the Titans, I plan to make it readily apparent who the number one pick should be, if only for the sake of my Bucs friends, but mostly because ESPN decided to post a poll where the country voiced who they would take and an OVERWHELMING majority made the wrong choice, choosing Mariota over Winston.
So, where to start. It would be easy to point to the fact that Heisman winning QBs rarely succeed in the modern NFL, using Griffin, and Leaf as the obvious examples. But lets look a little further. Who are the elite QBs in the NFL today? Manning, Brady, Roethelisburgersteinman (lol), Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Rivers, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Luck? Not a single Heisman in the lot of them. But, as many people are surely thinking right now, Winston and Mariota have both won the trophy. So it might be a wash. Except I would point to the fact that most Heisman winners fail to win their bowl games after winning said trophy and yet Winston somehow managed to make the Award Show rounds and still bring home the last BCS trophy. Which I think leads me to my next point. Winston is a winner. A true and proven winner. I am not going to pretend that he did not benefit from an absolutely stacked roster while at FSU, cause he did. But he followed up his Heisman season by essentially carrying the Noles on his back while dealing with a complete lack of running game, and only two viable receiving threats. He weathered everyone's best shot, week after week, and he did it all with massive distractions off the field. I hate to make this comparison but the last time college football saw a player with such a massive will to win it was a young man by the name of Tebow leading the Gators to win after win after win. Jump passes and all, anyone would admit that Tebow might be one of the greatest college QBs of all times. And despite the NFL deciding that his inability to actually practice like a pro QB, he was a proven winner in the league. He led the Broncos to a gut wrenching playoff win against the Steelers, and if not for Manning basically slapping him out of Denver and essentially out of the league, he would still be winning games. Because that's what he does. Its what Vince Young did too. Another example of a QB who just plain won. All the time. And Winston is absolutely cut from the same clothe.
Now, lets get down to the X's and O's. The differences between these two QBs is best illustrated by referencing the same disparities that exist between Luck/Griffin, and Rodgers/Smith. Winston, Luck and Rodgers were all PRO system QBs in college people! They ran a complex system that required multiple reads on every play. They were all given the chance to audible, check down, and basically free style in the passing game. And they were all wildly successful in doing so. Conversely, Mariota, Griffin, and Smith, were all SYSTEM QBs. For the laymen out there, that means they ran a simplistic system, with plays that called for one or two reads at most, and were expected to free style in the running game. I wont quibble over who was the better college QB, but I think we can all agree that when it comes to the NFL, an ability to free style in the running game gets you nowhere, unless your name is Russel Wilson, and oh by the way, he is a pass first QB who happens to be good with his feet. The same can be said of Luck. Understanding complex passing systems absolutely prepares a QB to be successful not just immediately, but for the long haul. Go back to that list of elite NFL QBs I mentioned above. How many of those guys were system guys in college? None. And of the system guys that are in the NFL now, Newton/Kaperloser/Griffin/
So, in my humble opinion, I think its rather obvious who the Bucs would be smart to pick. And I personally hope that Derrick Brooks still has enough sway with the Bucs brass to convince them that picking Mariota would be yet another Buc-like decision in a long history of Buc-like decisions. This is a franchise that would shock nobody if they made the wrong choice. So, do the right thing. Do what the Colts did; what the Packers did. Pick Winston. And save the franchise.
Phatty: I have to say your argument against Mariota as a system quarterback is compelling, but I noticed something else in those famous draft matchups you listed. Out of Leaf vs Manning and Luck vs Griffin, especially, something else becomes obvious when looking at who is a great QB who will be in the league for a long time and who is a washout: in each of those matchups, one guy is a head case.
Griffin seems to have all the tools to be a great quarterback in the NFL. His skill set is such that there seems to be no reason that he cannot do what Wilson is doing in Seattle. The only problem is (besides a complete lack of any talent around him; my God that team is so damn bad) is because he is too busy undermining his coaches and trying to be some kind of social media guru. He has not handled fame well, he has allowed his money and his position to change him (it would seem) and he does not have the right stuff to lead a team to wins. That is now painfully obvious to a Washington fan base that goes around with him hanging from their necks like an albatross. It is not a lack of talent or a system in college that ruined DC's hopes; it is what is between Robert's ears.
Another example: Leaf is a well-documented crazy person (who is in jail now; nice pick, Chargers) who could not handle all that came with being the star player, a team leader, and the face of a franchise. San Diego ignored all the warning signs and picked him to save their franchise, and that lasted only months before he imploded in on himself under the pressures of fame, fortune, and massive responsibility. I hate to say it, but nothing Winston has done nothing over the last year or so that he can handle the laurels and the burdens of being the number one overall pick, and someone who will be tasked with dragging a team out of the depths of futility (in a season where the team that won that NFC South had seven wins, Tampa was the only team that didn't even manage to figure into that race to mediocrity). Winston is immature, rash, and foolhardy, and it's not like it will be a surprise when he screws up. Everyone knows his long list of transgressions, none of which seemed to teach him a damn thing. Tampa would be extremely foolish to hand the keys to a kid who left his last team dented and scratched all over, and who came within a hair's breadth of totaling the whole thing and his career with it.
You mentioned that system quarterbacks never work, and I mentioned Wilson. It seems reasonable to me that as the NFL completely eliminates defense and moves closer to putting flags on quarterbacks, that quarterbacks who rely to a degree on their legs to create plays can be successful. Wilson is not making a ton of reads in order to make plays. He has good relationships with his receivers, who are ready to improvise when he does, and his feet keep plays alive along to let that happen. It seems reasonable that a proven winner like Mariota (oh yes, he wins, too, including a sound thrashing in the head-to-head meeting; don't pull a Big 12 and discount that) will be able to translate his game to the NFL and develop the timing and the relationships that will make success possible. Wilson's story arc tells us that it might not happen right away, but if paired with a good defense, the sky will eventually be the limit.
In a match-up of two guys who are proven winners and Heisman owners, let me have the one who can handle what is coming. Let me have the guy who will keep his head down, do the work, and lead his team. If I was Tampa I would certainly stay away from the guy who is so obviously
a time bomb that all the pro-style college offense in the world cannot make him worth it.
What I really want to hear, though, is what Cole thinks. After all, it is his shitty team that has the big decision to make. What do you think, Hoops, break the tie?
We'll update when Hoops throws in his two cents. UPDATE, 21 APRIL: HOOP BREAKS THE TIE AT THE END.
TOG: I have to admit, of all the possible arguments I thought you might make I did not see the "head case" one coming, at all. Its hard to deny that most of the examples I gave definitely fit that argument but I think that you're underestimating one key part of your own argument. You are correct to point out the complete ineptitude Winston has displayed in the two, almost three years, he was at Florida State. None of the examples I gave, not Ryan Leaf, or Robert Griffin, managed to display the gamut of moronic decision making that Winston did. Neither one of them, while in college, put it all on display quite like Winston did. Neither one of them was accused of rape, shot up a neighborhood with BB guns, stole soda from a fast food restaurant, stole crab legs, or shouted a popular offensive phrase but you know what? Other than the rape accusation, ALL of those things are EASILY explainable as a maturity issues. And, you glossed over the most important part of those two plus years of stupidity. How exactly did Winston handle all the mishaps, embarrassments, and social miscues? Only by leading the Seminoles to a 26-1 record, that's how. Can you tell me exactly how Mariota will handle the bright lights, the fame, the adversity that comes with being the face of a franchise? I don't think anyone can. I challenge you to consider why exactly it took Mariota so long to win the Heisman. I happen to think that if Mariota had even a little bit of charisma or leadership ability he would have won the Heisman the year that Winston did. Lets face it, Mariota makes Winston his statistical bitch. He was near flawless and yet, somehow, Winston managed to do something, in two less seasons than Mariota.
Also, you mention Wilson as an example of a system quarterback and I think you would have been right if he had stayed at NC State. But, through his transfer to Wisconsin, he exposed himself to a pro style system that helped prepare him to play in the league. Its essentially the same system he ran in college. Heavy run, play action based system. And youre right, he does benefit from a team that was established with quality role players.....but do any of us really see Tampa Bay as a similar situation? I, for one, don't. I see a team that needs a player that can handle the pressure, whether self induced or induced in the form of a crappy organization, coach, and ownership group. They need a guy like Winston, who will smile through it all, not let the outside noise change his play, and keep all the disbelievers fuming.
But you're right my friend, I am curious how Cole feels, as a life long fan of the Bucs and a die hard Seminole....so none of us should be surprised when he sides with me but...hold out hope Rob lol.
Also, the four letter network wanted to make a story line out of nothing, as it appears they did with Deflategate, and ran a headline earlier this week about how if Winston showed up to the combine out of shape then teams would have their worries confirmed....and today, when Winston shows up 17 lbs lighter, they make a headline about him potentially scaring off teams because of dietary issues. I didn't talk about it earlier but I think a vast majority of the issues that fuel your head case argument are fabricated because media wants to make him into something he just isn't. He isn't a villain. He isn't a head case. He is a scapegoat. It's disgusting, really.
ColeHoop: Know how I know it's NFL Draft season? Because right now, just like every other April for the past decade, I'm completely over the NFL. We've suffered through months of speculation from bloggers, talk radio and television hosts and scores of other writers whose opinion about the NFL draft isn't worth any more than yours and mine:
This team is high on this guy and will trade up to get him, according to my sources. Watch out for this guy - he robbed a taco stand in college, and I hear he's probably going to be lucky to be drafted before the fifth round. Team A hates Player X, but Team B loves him. I've got Player Y listed as my top Position C.
These sometimes hyperbolic and frequent click-bait headlines shouldn't surprise us. There are roughly six weeks between the final whistle of the Super Bowl and March Madness. When the winning team cuts the nets in early April, there's another few weeks before playoff hockey and basketball start. It's a dead period, and with football as America's reigning, defending and undisputed past time and financial king, most people would rather discuss rumors about 20 and 21-year old soon-to-be rookies than any other sport.
It's enough to make anyone change the channel, turn off the station, self-impose a Twitter ban (I saw several people who quit Twitter for Lent specifically because it aligned with this time frame) and do anything they can to get away from the same tired arguments that I can almost guarantee you GMs are either not having or are looking at from completely different perspectives.
Unless you've been hiding under a rock you know that the "chosen one" of this year's pre-draft speculation is Jameis Winston, the Heisman and National Championship winning quarterback who has created debate about whether he should be the number one pick due to his accomplishments and decisions both on and off the field.
The team that controls the number one pick, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, also controls the destiny of the NFL Draft. If they select Jameis, the drama will shift to where Marcus Mariota lands. If they don't select Jameis, you can expect the Titans to either select the former Seminole or be showered with an abundance of riches in the form of draft picks from a team willing to mortgage its future on Winston. I undoubtedly believe we'll see the former over the latter, and it's the right move.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The Tampa Bay Buccaneers counted themselves among the NFL's elite from 1996-2002. Thanks to a monstrous defense the Bucs tallied a 66-40 record, capping it off with a dominating victory in Super Bowl XXXVII. Since then Tampa Bay hasn't won a playoff game and its fans have suffered through a 75-117 record.
The 2015 Bucs lack talent in the areas most critical to success in the NFL: quarterback and offensive line. Picking number one in this year's draft allows the Bucs the opportunity to choose between two quarterbacks who enjoyed incredible success during their college careers. However, anyone with an intermediate knowledge of how the game is played at the professional level will tell you that Jameis Winston is better prepared and equipped to succeed in the NFL than Marcus Mariota - probably for the long term, but most definitely for the short term. If I drafted Marcus it would be with the understanding that he needs to sit for the first year of his contract. If I drafted Jameis, he's my starter the moment his name is called.
Detractors will point to Jameis' interceptions this season as examples of his dangerous inconsistency and poor decision making. I, and more importantly NFL scouts, do not share that sentiment because we have watched every snap of Winston's career. Understand that about half - yes, HALF - of Winston's interceptions in 2014 were not due to bad decisions or poor throws on his part; rather, they were due to wide receivers not completing their routes or simply dropping the ball. Take those away, and Jameis' interception total matches that of 2013.
He makes throws that college quarterbacks can rarely make or even understand why/how they should be making them. There's a reason Todd McShay calls him the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck - it's because Jameis is the best professional prospect since Andrew Luck!
The Bucs need a franchise quarterback and they need one now. Vincent Jackson provides veteran and solid experience at wide-out. Mike Evans would have been Offensive Rookie of the Year by a landslide if Odell Beckham didn't exist. The Bucs run game has potential. Lovie Smith and Jason Licht are beginning to build a championship defense.
Tampa, you have all but two of the main ingredients for long term success in the NFL. Go out and get your franchise QB - I'll be happy to donate some Old Bay seasoning if he costs you too much.
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